Remember February 27th, 2007? The 4% drop in the US markets were widely considered to be to the detriment of Greenspan’s comments with regard to his comments that day of a 1/3 probability of the U.S. falling into a recession in 2007-08. Quite possibly he is early, but he obviously wants to go on record with his view just as he did when he was early in his “irrational exuberance” speech in 1996, yet he still has a point. Grantham makes just as good of a case in his letter, which we will take a closer look. Taking into consideration some of the thoughts from Jeremy Grantham, we can see that markets across the globe have been hitting record highs for some time now while others are just beginning to penetrate these new levels. Here’s a list of 10 markets that have posted new record highs in the last week or two (See Chart below). The percentage gains of each market are from the beginning of 2003 through this past week of trading. As you can see, the U.S. markets have been lagging all other indices respecitively.
(There are several other markets that are within a few percentage points of their all-time highs, but I decided to only list some of those that actually broke records).

See the chart below for an overview of the world’s GDP growth from 1980-2008 projections provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As you can see, since 2003 we have been at a growth rate higher than any of the previous 27 years. That has helped propel worldwide equity markets to the record levels of today.

Many analysts believe a shock to the Chinese markets may cause a windfall of turbulence for other world markets much like it did in late February.
With that said, the Shanghai index fell 6.5% on May 30th. Those same analysts would have expected a drop in the U.S. markets due to the shock. However, all major U.S. indices opened at the lows only to post record highs. Now, the activity we saw that day is now merely a blip on the screen. Although the world is more globalized and has a horizontal marketplace, one can not assume that market shocks will have worldwide impacts. May 30th is a great example of the isolation to a single financial market with no overflow effects.
If we are truly in an asset bubble at this time, there is always a catalyst to burst the bubble; what is it going to be this time? Jeremy Grantham says that “We (GMO, his investment firm) haven’t agreed yet on a catalyst for 1929, 1987, or 2000, or even the South Sea bubble for that matter.” He does however offer two main areas of concern; inflation and lower profit margins. Inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to take monetary policy actions; whereas, the drop in profit margins over time could hinder financial market’s ability to maintain these high levels.
It will be interesting to see if either of these two factors come to fruition, but one thing is for sure…market’s around the globe have enjoyed a great amount of growth in the past five years.
If we are truly in an asset bubble at this time, there is always a catalyst to burst the bubble; what is it going to be this time? Jeremy Grantham says that “We (GMO, his investment firm) haven’t agreed yet on a catalyst for 1929, 1987, or 2000, or even the South Sea bubble for that matter.” He does however offer two main areas of concern; inflation and lower profit margins. Inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to take monetary policy actions; whereas, the drop in profit margins over time could hinder financial market’s ability to maintain these high levels.
It will be interesting to see if either of these two factors come to fruition, but one thing is for sure…market’s around the globe have enjoyed a great amount of growth in the past five years.
Whether we come to a screeching halt or slowly contract these gains over time and the timing of either of these scenarios is the question that no one really knows. That is why the financial markets intrigue so many intelligent individuals. Until next time, enjoy the ride.
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